common ground
  Qualitative Models
  to Evaulate
  New Sales Channels



by Steven Pavent

    The last few months I’ve talked about the acquiring shift to the more direct or employee model versus the independent model and explored the differences between wholesaling and retailing. This month, I’ll look at quantifying different models to help you choose the correct model for your organization. You can have the best sales plan in the world and sign up thousands of merchants but if the organization doesn’t make a return for the owners and shareholders, the sales machine is worthless.
    I will walk you through a very basic tool to compare different sales models. Some of the models can get very complex but I will try and keep it simple. Simple or complex, it is crucial to evaluate different models before embarking on a new channel, as you are looking to maximize your return and not run out of cash. When you create your tool you must make certain assumptions and create key variables. These key assumptions will be the drivers of your various models, which is why I always recommend creating tools that allow you to “plug-in” these key numbers.

Key Assumptions/Variables:

  • Number of sales per month for the average sales representative
  • Monthly salary (if there is one) per month - including all benefits, phone, gas, etc. (don’t forget to include taxes)
  • Up-front costs of acquiring a merchant (signing bonus, free equipment, etc.)
  • Internal costs of boarding a new merchant (underwriting, credit, deployment, training, etc.)
  • Average net revenue per month per merchant (after processor and support payouts.)
  • Average residual per month per merchant schedule (amount paid to the sales representative forever vs. one year vs. sliding.)
  • Average life span of a merchant (how many months will an average merchant process with you.)

    Now, all that is needed to do is to put a spreadsheet together. You first must compute your investment or month 0 costs, the costs incurred before the merchant begins to process. These costs include the salary, benefits and taxes associated with the salesperson and the allocated costs (x percent of their full salary and recruiting costs based upon number of reps) of the sales manager for one month. Do not include any annuity or residual. Next, run an analysis of the revenue after residuals on a monthly basis for the average life span of the merchant. This is generally somewhere between 36 and 60 months, based upon your portfolio. You now have a series of numbers or cash flows going from month 0 (the investment) through month 48 (for a merchant with an average life span of 48 months). A second series of numbers titled “net cash” should then be created which compute a running sum of the amount spent or made over the life of the model.
    Based on this little exercise, you can come up with two key numbers. First, you can understand what the payback period (PP) or break even point in the investment is. This crucial number is where the net cash goes from negative to positive. The month in which this occurs is called the payback period and tells an acquirer when he first starts making money. This number helps an acquirer manage cash flow as he grows his sales channel because the farther out this number gets pushed, the longer it will take to turn a profit and go “positive” on a merchant.
    Next, you want to compute your internal rate of return (IRR). This shows what type of return an acquirer is making on his investment and is often the gauge of where to invest capital, as savvy acquirers are looking to maximize the IRR. To get this number, use the “IRR” function in your spreadsheet and use the investment amount as your first “value” allowed by the sum of each subsequent year’s monthly cash flow. Remember, your analysis was done monthly so you will need to compute each year’s cash influx for this exercise. With a merchant having a 48-month life span, there will be five values created and these inputs in the formula will deliver your IRR. Now try this exercise using three or four sales models, employees with different compensation plans, independent contractors, etc. At this point you can begin to see how such tools can be valuable!

 Evaluation Model - 10 Merchants Signed in Month 0
    M0 M1 M11 M12 M24 M36 M48
Signed Merchants        M-0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Salary & Benefits Rep $3,000 3,000            
Allocated Mgr & recruiting $1,000 1,000            
Upfront Cost $100 1,000            
Internal Costs $50 500            
Rev. Per Merchant $80   800 800 800 800 800 800
Resid. Schedule 1 Year 0 0 320 320 320      
Average Life Span 4 Years              
Cash Flows   -5,500 480 480 480 800 800 800
          5,760 9,600 9,600 9,600
Net Cash   -5,500 -5,020 -220 260 9,860 19,460 29,060
Payback Period Month: 12         PAYBACK      


Investment -5,500
Year 1 5,760
Year 2 9,600
Year 3 9,600
Year 4 9,600
  29,060
IRR 129%


   The above charts are an example:
    In this example, the IRR is 129% with a 12-month PP. However, there are some important assumptions driving this return. If these key numbers are proven wrong, both your model and your analysis will be flawed. These key numbers must become the key management metrics of your sales organization. Interestingly, different organizations will have dissimilar numbers in their model as the skill sets and competencies of different companies are extremely varied. However, if you are going to follow a model you must, at a minimum, meet the standards in your tool. If you see your organization start to slip, it will be time to refine the model and make new decisions about the continuation of the plan. Again, the reason for the analysis in the first place was to compare different sales approaches and get the best return.
    There is no right or wrong sales channel for any organization. However, before creating a channel or deciding where to invest your next dollar, it is always good to create a model to assure yourself you are getting the most for your money and are making the appropriate return. After that decision is made, continue to track your progress and ensure you are executing in accordance with your model. In the end, the organizations that invest to optimize returns, and not just optimize volume processed or deals submitted, will achieve the greatest level of success.